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Tuesday, May 15, 2018

US rupture with Iran agreement will affect global economy

Por qubano22005

The news is spreading all over the world. Washington’s breakup and exit from the nuclear agreement with Iran known as the Comprehensive Joint Plan of Action left everyone speechless. Apparently the fear of many American psychologists is real: Trump is mentally ill. However, the saddest thing is that his advisors do not stop him. I am afraid that Trump, if he continues acting madly, will become the Führer of the 21st Century. And what is worst, he re-imposed "to the maximum level" the sanctions that on the regime of Iran weighed before the agreement was signed. He did not listen to the allies and now under American First motto, he isolates the country from the world. Although he does not care, there will be serious politic and economic consequences.

Assuming this new position, the US president turns the back not only to peace and tranquility in the Middle East, but also to the global economy and even to US businessmen themselves. Trump's radical measures are shocking because they contradict his business and entrepreneurial spirit.

However, some political analysts believe that Trump’s movement responds to the imperative necessity of the billionaire to destroy Barack Obama’s legacy, his predecessor. On this occasion Trump is based on the fallacy that if the United States did nothing, in a short time "the world's biggest sponsor of terrorism was going to get the most dangerous weapon".

With this rupture the incipient access of Western companies to the Iranian market of a total of 80 million people is lost in a blink. Another that will suffer damages and will certainly have large losses in the stock market and in its economic forecasts will be the aeronautics industry. In 2016 and under the pact that lifted the restrictions on Iran, the Airbus group signed an agreement with the IranAir airline to sell 100 aircraft for about $ 19,000 million, a deal which benefited both countries. On one hand, the United States would receive fresh currency inflows and financing for its aircraft manufacturer; on the other hand, the Persian nation would modernize its fleet of civilian airplanes.

Another aeronautics giant, Boeing, also signed an agreement to sell 80 aircraft for about $ 17,000 million that must have been delivered from 2017 until 2025 so the company would have a deadline to meet the target. But, after the "maximum level" restrictions reestablished, the American company’s income will be greatly affected, which also involved the delivery of 30 aircraft for $ 3,000 million to Aseman Airlines, also from Iran. Before the new Trump’s tantrum, the CEO of the company said he knew the risks he was facing but it was the biggest business that the US Company signed before the occupation of the US embassy in Tehran in 1979.

Not only billions of dollars in aeronautics are exposed to be lost, the oil sector will also be affected and European and Russian companies that also have investments in Iran will be seriously compromised.

Perhaps this different analysis of the measure has not been widely studied by analysts. Actually, under Trump's American First it makes sense Donald acts abandoning the agreement. The US president seeks to undermine the economy of its competitors. Let’s not forget that the Yankee president considers the American economy is at disadvantage compared to the "vampires" of Europe, the Russian threat and the Chinese "usurpers". Hence, affecting their business in booming regions like Iran is also part of his economic and political game.

Richard Nephew, an expert on sanctions from the State Department, said that those who hesitated to make business with Iran will be scared away from doing it. "The only ones who will make business are those who see an enormous financial benefit and not a risk in the United States," added the also professor at Columbia University.

Perhaps Donald has not calculated it but Iran could also retaliate or take actions under the pretext that the United States is not fulfilling its part of the deal. It is difficult to say how far Tehran will go. They may suddenly remember how is to make nuclear weapons and resume uranium enrichment, produce plutonium and increase their uranium stockpiles and your supply of centrifuges.